Integrating downscaled CMIP5 data with a physically based hydrologic model to estimate potential climate change impacts on streamflow processes in a mixed‐use watershed          下载免费PDF全文

Michael G. Sunde  Hong S. He  Jason A. Hubbart  Michael A. Urban 《水文研究》2017,31(9):1790-1803

Climatic changes have altered surface water regimes worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. To inform management decisions, climate projections must be paired with hydrologic models to develop quantitative estimates of watershed scale water regime changes. Such modeling approaches often involve downscaling climate model outputs, which are generally presented at coarse spatial scales. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model projections were analyzed to determine models representing severe and conservative climate scenarios for the study watershed. Based on temperature and precipitation projections, output from GFDL‐ESM2G (representative concentration pathway 2.6) and MIROC‐ESM (representative concentration pathway 8.5) were selected to represent conservative (Δ_C) and severe (Δ_S) change scenarios, respectively. Climate data were used as forcing for the soil and water assessment tool to analyze the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic processes in a mixed‐use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results showed annual streamflow decreases ranging from ?5.9% to ?26.8% and evapotranspiration (ET) increases ranging from +7.2% to +19.4%. During the mid‐21st century, sizeable decreases to summer streamflow were observed under both scenarios, along with large increases of fall, spring, and summer ET under Δ_S. During the late 21st century period, large decreases of summer streamflow under both scenarios, and large increases to spring (Δ_S), fall (Δ_S) and summer (Δ_C) ET were observed. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of a Midwestern watershed to future climatic changes utilizing projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and presented an approach that used multiple climate model outputs to characterize potential watershed scale climate impacts.  相似文献   

Age of the MGS5 segment of the Milanggouwan stratigraphical section and evolution of the desert environment on a kiloyear scale during the Last Interglacial in China's Salawusu River Valley: Evidence from Rb and Sr contents and ratios     

Shuhuan Du  Baosheng Li  Dongfeng Niu  David Dian Zhang  Xiaohao Wen  Deniu Chen  Yi Yang  Fengnian Wang 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2011,(1):87-95

The MGS5 segment of the Milanggouwan stratigraphical section in China's Salawusu River Valley records 8.5 sedimentary cycles consisting of dune sands alternating with fluviolacustrine facies or/and paleosols. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the distribution of Rb and Sr within the segment and paleoecological evidence (fossils), it appears that the observed sedimentation cycles mainly resulted from fluctuations between dry-cold and warm-humid climates, which indicates that the MGS5 segment experienced at least eight cold-dry and nine warm-humid climatic fluctuations. Of these, 12 cold–warm climate fluctuations correspond to DO20–DO25 and stadia 21–26 recorded by the NGRIP ice cores. Another five cold–warm climatic fluctuations that occurred during MGS5e correspond to five substages (5e1–5e5) recorded by the GRIP ice cores from Greenland. This kind of high-frequency climatic fluctuation on a kiloyear scale was mainly subject to variations in the strength of the East Asian winter and summer monsoons.  相似文献   

敏感性分析在烃源岩成熟度史模拟中的应用——以川东北地区普光5井古生界海相烃源岩为例          下载免费PDF全文

饶松  唐晓音  朱传庆  胡圣标  汪集旸 《地质科学》2011,46(1):213-225

通过分析输人模型的参数对输出结果的影响,可以确定影响烃源岩成熟度史模拟的敏感性参数.本文应用Easy% Ro化学动力学模型,以普光5井为例,对川东北地区各期构造运动剥蚀厚度、古地表温度和古地温梯度进行了相关的敏感性分析.分析结果表明:研究区下寒武统、下志留统、下二叠统和上二叠统烃源岩现今成熟度状态完全受控于燕山运动晚幕...  相似文献   

CMIP3模式对未来50a欧亚大陆雪水当量的预估   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

马丽娟  罗勇  秦大河 《冰川冻土》2011,33(4):707-720

为研究预估未来50a欧亚大陆雪水当量,基于遥感数据,用误差百分率、空间相关和误差标准差等统计方法,评估了14个CMIP3模式在20C3M的雪水当量产品,诊断各模式对欧亚大陆雪水当量的模拟能力,在此基础上对模拟效果较好的10个模式产品进行多模式集合,分析了A2和B1情景下2002—2060年欧亚大陆雪水当量的变化．结果表...  相似文献   

热带海气相互作用对大气BSISO年际振荡的影响     

林爱兰  LITim  李春晖  梁建茵  LUOJing-Jia 《海洋学报(英文版)》2011,30(4):62-73

利用卫星观测OLR资料以及海气耦合数值模拟试验结果,从每年波-频分析结果提取了各种传播模态的强度指数序列,分析了热带北半球夏季季节内振荡(BSISO)各种传播模态的年际变化谱特征,探讨了热带各海区海气相互作用对其影响。主要结果如下:赤道外西传波和印度洋北传波以准2 a为显著振荡周期,赤道东传波、南海北传波和西太平洋北传波则都包含准2 a和准5 a两种周期,南海北传波是5种指数中惟一以准5 a为最主要周期振荡的模态。热带印度洋、西太平洋、东太平洋各海区海气相互作用对各指数准2 a振荡、准5 a振荡既有加强作用,也有削弱作用。各海区比较而言,对赤道东传波准2 a和准5 a振荡、南海北传波准2 a和准5 a振荡起最大加强作用的是西太平洋海区海气相互作用;对赤道外西传波准2 a振荡、西太平洋北传波准2 a和准5 a振荡起最大加强作用的是印度洋海区海气相互作用。  相似文献   

岛屿地形对热带气旋强度影响的数值模拟研究     

班浩然  端义宏 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2011,41(3):1-10

本文用理想数值模拟分析的方法,在MM5模式中构造对称初始涡旋,在理想的环境场中发展为成熟的TC并移动经过从台湾岛抽象出的岛屿地形,揭示岛屿对TC强度和结构影响的机理。结果表明,理想模拟试验的方法对TC强度及结构变化的模拟具有很好的可靠性和客观性;TC中心登岛至到达岛屿山顶过程中,由于岛屿地形的抬升作用使得垂直方向上产生了局地的狭管收缩效应,使得TC在通过时强度短暂加强;TC在过岛过程中,风速垂直结构以及暖心结构的对称性会因地形的抬升和扰动影响而破坏,同时二者的大值区范围缩小;TC在过岛时,暖心结构在中高层分裂成一大一小2个部分,低层暖心偏离TC低压中心而伸向地面,TC由准正压系统变为斜压系统,使得TC整体强度减弱;次生低压对翻山后的TC中心的吸引融合加速了其过山后的北折过程;TC过岛后强度减弱十分明显,这是由于岛屿地形对环流摩擦阻力较大,对水汽供应的减弱和阻断,以及对TC对称结构的破坏。  相似文献   

中国近海蒸发波导的数值模拟与预报研究     

陈莉  高山红  康士峰  吴增茂 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2011,(Z1):1-8

利用中尺度大气模式MM5对2007年中国近海大气蒸发波导进行了全年的高分辨的数值模拟。模拟结果统计表明,整个海域蒸发波导的平均出现概率约为90%。本文重点关注强度较大的蒸发波导,详细分析了其季节分布特征及其与海洋环流和海面气象条件的相关关系。研究发现,25°N以南的开阔海域的蒸发波导出现概率全年都较高,而以北的东海西北部、黄海与渤海,蒸发波导的出现概率呈现明显的季节特征;蒸发波导的空间分布受中国近海海洋环流的强烈影响,存在1个与黑潮区域相一致的带状波导高出现概率区域,台湾暖流、黄海暖流和对马暖流使得在某些季节相应海域蒸发波导出现概率高于其周围海域。此外,本文还基于WRF模式及其3DVAR系统构建了大气波导数值预报系统,尝试对中国东南海域的蒸发波导进行数值预报。  相似文献   

基于GMS鄱阳湖拟建枢纽对地下水影响探讨          下载免费PDF全文

兰盈盈  曾马荪  靳孟贵  邹友琴  陈保平  吴力泓 《水文》2015,35(6):37-41

针对拟建鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程对地下水影响问题,选择赣江三角洲为代表区,采用资料收集、野外调查、统计分析和数值模拟等方法进行研究。依据地质钻探资料、地下水与河流动态关系、区域数字高程模型,结合鄱阳湖历史形成与演化过程确定研究区边界条件,运用GMS模拟软件建立了研究区地下水三维运动模型。依据推荐的枢纽调度方案,利用数值模型计算枢纽运行后对地下水运动影响的时空变化规律。结果表明:枯水年份影响大,距离河流、坝址近的地方影响大,反之亦然。影响幅度范围0~2m,地下水径流交替因此减弱,丰水年份土壤潜育化面积增加9.3%。  相似文献   

DISCREPANCY OF THE GLOBAL AIR MASS AND WATER BUDGETS AMONG 20 CMIP5 CLIMATE MODELS     

秦育婧  卢楚翰  管兆勇  智海 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(3):265-275

The consistency of global atmospheric mass and water budget performance in 20 state-of-the-art ocean–atmosphere Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled models has been assessed in a historical experiment. All the models realistically reproduce a climatological annual mean of global air mass (AM) close to the ERA-Interim AM during 1989–2005. Surprisingly, the global AM in half of the models shows nearly no seasonal variation, which does not agree with the seasonal processes of global precipitable water or water vapor, given the mass conservation constraint. To better understand the inconsistencies, we evaluated the seasonal cycles of global AM tendency and water vapor source (evaporation minus precipitation). The results suggest that the inconsistencies result from the poor balance between global AM tendency and water vapor source based on the global AM budget equation. Moreover, the cross-equatorial dry air mass ?ux, or hemispheric dry mass divergence, is not well represented in any of the 20 CMIP5 models, which show a poorly matched seasonal cycle and notably larger amplitude, compared with the hemispheric tendencies of dry AM in both the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Pronounced erroneous estimations of tropical precipitation also occur in these models. We speculate that the large inaccuracy of precipitation and possibly evaporation in the tropics is one of the key factors for the inconsistent cross-equatorial mass ?ux. A reasonable cross-equatorial mass ?ux in well-balanced hemispheric air mass and moisture budgets remains a challenge for both reanalysis assimilation systems and climate modeling.  相似文献   

DZZ5新型自动站直射表日照观测与人工观测对比     

孟庆勇  次仁德吉  旺堆 《气象科技》2015,43(3):417-421

西藏林芝DZZ5新型自动气象站的太阳直接辐射表配备全自动精密双轴跟踪仪,具备自动观测日照的功能。通过比较新型日照观测仪器和暗筒式日照计所获取资料的差值,给出人工观测资料的换算系数概念,并进一步分析不同差值的形成原因和规律,为衔接使用人工观测日照资料的各种科研工作提供理论依据和参考。按照气象辐射观测业务工作的相关要求,对DZZ5新型自动气象站的设备配置和测报软件方面存在的问题提出具体改进建议,使其达到日照自动观测能稳妥、可靠地取代人工观测的目的。  相似文献